Publications

“Marriage Market and Labor Market Sorting”
Review of Economic Studies, 2024, 91(6): 3316-3361  
with Ilse Lindenlaub and Ana Reynoso

Abstract

We develop a new equilibrium model in which households’ labor supply choices form the link between sorting in the marriage market and sorting in the labor market. We first show that, in theory, the properties of the home production function—namely, whether partners’ hours are complements or substitutes in producing a public good—shape equilibrium labor supply as well as marriage and labor market sorting. We then estimate our model using German data to assess the nature of home production. We find that spouses’ home production hours are complements, and this complementarity has increased over time from1990 to 2016. By increasing partners’ incentives to spend similar hours in home production, this trend strengthens positive marriage sorting and reduces the gender gap in worked hours and in labor market sorting. This puts significant downward pressure on the gender wage gap and within-household income inequality, but fuels between-household inequality.



“Motherhood Penalty in Consumption” Economics Letters, 2025, 257.  
with Ilse Lindenlaub and Lindsey Uniat

Abstract

We examine how labor market disruptions following childbirth relate to intra-household consumption inequality in the long run. Novel survey data from Germany shows that women less educated than their partners are more likely to report child-related career interruptions and receive a smaller share of household consumption, relative to women more educated than their spouses. Moreover, conditioning on partners' relative education, female career disruptions correlate with higher male consumption, suggesting that child-rearing may shape gender disparities not only in labor outcomes but also in long-term consumption—an overlooked aspect of the “motherhood penalty”.


“Immigrant Children’s School Performance and Immigration Costs: Evidence from Spain”. Economics Letters, 2018, 170, 27-30.
with Facundo Albornoz, Antonio Cabrales, and Esther Hauk

Abstract

This note provides evidence on how immigration costs affect school performance of immigrant children exploiting the information provided by the CDI; a standardized exam for all students enrolled in the last year of Primary education in the Madrid region. For a given socio-economic background and parent characteristics, school performance of immigrant children improves with parental immigration costs.


“Welfare Impact of Wheat Export Restrictions in Argentina: Non-parametric Analysis on Urban Households”.
Trade policies, household welfare and poverty alleviation. Case studies from the Virtual Institute academic network, 2014 (Ed. Pavcnik, N.), Geneva: UNCTAD.

Abstract

The Argentine wheat value chain was subject to considerable policy interventions during the last decade. The measures adopted by the government included export duties from 2002 onward, quantitative wheat export restrictions since 2006, and domestic price ceilings and subsidies introduced in 2007. These policy instruments aimed to limit the increase in domestic prices of cereals during a period of high international prices and to keep an adequate provision of grains in the domestic market. Export restrictions implicitly intended to avoid an increase in the prices of basic consumption goods derived from wheat. However, these non-tariff measures could also distort farmers’ incentives to produce. Using non-parametric techniques, this study contributes to the policy discussion of the effects of non-tariff measures in the cereals market by evaluating the welfare impact of wheat export restrictions on Argentine urban households. Focusing on the effects of changes in prices of final consumption goods during 2006 - 2011, the study finds that prices of wheat derivatives would be only 1 per cent higher in the absence of quantitative restrictions, with negligible welfare effects on consumers. If both export restrictions and subsidies to millers were removed, prices would be 6.4 percent higher. This would imply modest welfare losses ranging from zero to 1.5 percent, mainly affecting the poorest households.

Working Papers

“The Effects of Institutional Gaps between Cohabitation and Marriage” (May 2025). Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies.

Abstract
I examine the choice between marriage and cohabitation, and its implications for individual welfare and child human capital. I show that, conditional on observable characteristics, cohabiting couples experience higher separation rates and worse child outcomes. I then build and estimate an equilibrium model of the marriage market, with subsequent life-cycle choices, incorporating the marriage-cohabitation choice. I find that non-college-educated cohabiting women receive fewer household resources than married women. Consistent with the data, their children accumulate less human capital, driven by lower maternal time investments and higher separation rates. In a counterfactual analysis, I find that a policy that equalizes custody laws for married and cohabiting parents would increase cohabitation by 33% and improve the welfare of non-college-educated women. Changes in the marriage-market equilibrium drive these effects: while weaker parental rights initially hurt cohabiting women, equilibrium adjustments ultimately reallocate household resources in their favor.

“Trapped in Purgatory? The Impact of Divorce Laws on Women’s Welfare with Separation” (August 2025). Under Revision  
with Murat Iyigun and Jeanne Lafortune

Abstract
We show that separation has been a relevant outcome of American relationships over the last century and that separated women have worse economic outcomes than those divorced. A transferable-utility model of marriage, separation and divorce indicates that the welfare effects of divorce legislation depend on considering separation as an alternative. Empirically, the adoption of unilateral divorce laws reduced separation and increased divorce, particularly among low-educated women. A calibrated model indicates heterogeneous welfare effects of unilateral divorce with gains being concentrated among women with lower education. Desertion laws with very short duration generate similar gains for women.

Selected Work in Progress

“Intra-Household Risk Sharing and Aggregate Consumption Inequality”  
with Ilse Lindenlaub, Ben Lochner, Ana Reynoso and Lindsey Uniat

Abstract

“The Link between Fertility and Retirement and its Implications for Family Policy” with Ariel Binder, Brian Fujiy and Long Hong

Abstract

This project investigates how retirement and fertility decisions are interconnected across generations in the United States, focusing on grandparents' role as informal childcare providers. To study this, we use unique restricted data from the universe of US federal tax filers 1040 forms spanning nearly three decades (1994-2022). This allows us to link, for the first time, grandparents, parents, and children for most of the US population. Through an event study design, we analyze how grandparental retirement affects adult children's fertility and labor market outcomes, and conversely, how grandchildren's arrivals influence grandparents' retirement decisions. Our comprehensive data enables us to control for key mediating factors, including geographic proximity between generations and formal childcare costs, as well as to explore how these intergenerational dynamics vary across racial groups and household structures (e.g., single mothers vs. married couples). To quantify the impact of informal grandparental care on aggregate labor market outcomes and evaluate potential policy interventions, we develop a structural model of household decision-making that incorporates endogenous fertility, labor supply, and retirement choices across generations. Our research carries significant implications for labor market policies affecting both older and younger workers, particularly regarding retirement age regulations and childcare subsidy programs.


“The Welfare Impact of Motherhood”  
with Ilse Lindenlaub and Yoko Okuyama and Sertan Ozsoy

Abstract

“Parental Mental Health and Children Outcomes”  
with Marianne Bernatzky and Zhengren Zhu

Abstract
In this project we explore the role that parental mental health has on children’s human capital development. Using data from NLSY79, linking mothers and their children, we document that 1) there is a positive relation between poor maternal mental health and her child’s mental health problems, 2) poor maternal mental health is negatively associated with her child’s cognitive outcomes and 3) inputs such as emotional support and material investments are negatively associated with problems in maternal mental health. With this empirical evidence as motivation, we develop a model of child human capital development where maternal mental health enters as an additional input in the production function of a child’s human capital. By looking at the impact of child’s human capital on long-term outcomes, we aim to understand how mental health contributes to the intergenerational transmission of poverty and inequality.

Policy Papers

Paula Calvo, Luis Felipe López-Calva, Josefina Posadas (2015). “A Decade of Declining Earning Inequality in the Russian Federation”. World Bank Policy Research, WP 7392.

Abstract

Wage inequality decreased significantly in the Russian Federation over the 2000s. The economic expansion experienced throughout the decade led to an improvement in social indicators, with a large reduction in poverty rates and an increase in higher education. In this context, wage inequality showed a sharp decline, with the Gini index on labor income decreasing by 18 percent between 2002 and 2012. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper documents the reduction in wage inequality and explores potential factors behind the trend. The analysis uses a decomposition technique proposed by Fortin, Lemieux, and Firpo (2011) to disentangle the main drivers behind changes in the wage distribution. The results suggest that wage structure effects are more important than composition effects for explaining changes in wage inequality. Institutional factors, such as minimum wage policies and changes in the returns to employment in different sectors and types of firms as well as the reduction of the skill premium, emerge as the most relevant factors for explaining changes in the wage structure.


Joao Pedro Azevedo, Paula Calvo, Minh Nguyen, Josefina Posadas (2015). “Kyrgyz Republic : Social Sectors at a Glance”. Social Protection and Labor Discussion Paper, No. 1505.

Abstract

Traditional benchmarks to assess performance rely on unconditional rankings or regional averages. This paper uses a recently developed methodology based on quantile regressions and initial conditions to propose alternative benchmarks for social sectors in Kyrgyz Republic. Covering a wide set of indicators, the analysis reveals mixed results for Kyrgyz Republic. The country has made important strides in many social areas, with outstanding results in reducing child mortality and undernourishment. However, other areas are still key challenges and demand further attention and resources, as evidenced by the underachievement in maternal mortality, educational performance, and increasing informality in labor markets.